Fact check: Trump, in 2023, tells a new lie about the 2020 election

Add one other election mislead the lengthy, lengthy checklist.

Former President Donald Trump has tried for almost two and a half years to persuade Individuals that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election he misplaced honest and sq. to Joe Biden. He’s nonetheless attempting at this time, in 2023, as he seeks the Republican presidential nomination as soon as extra.

However Trump’s newest supposed piece of proof, like his earlier supposed items of proof, is full bunk.

In a speech to a Republican gathering in Florida on Friday, throughout which he repeated his normal lie that the 2020 election was “rigged and stolen,” Trump pointedly famous that Biden received extra votes than Trump in fewer than a fifth of US counties in 2020. Trump then mentioned, “Nothing like this has ever occurred earlier than. Often it’s very equal, or – however the winner all the time had probably the most counties.”

Details First: Trump’s declare that the winner of each presidential election earlier than 2020 all the time carried probably the most counties is fake. The 2 earlier Democratic winners earlier than Biden, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Invoice Clinton in 1992 and 1996, carried a minority of counties in every of their victories. Obama received about 28% of counties in his 2008 victory and even fewer, about 22% of counties, in his 2012 victory, in accordance with figures supplied to CNN by David Wasserman, a outstanding analyst of election knowledge who’s a senior editor at The Cook dinner Political Report with Amy Walter. Like Biden, Obama received the nationwide common vote by thousands and thousands whilst he carried fewer than a 3rd of counties.

Biden carried about 17% of counties whereas beating Trump in 2020, a smaller proportion of counties than Obama carried whereas profitable in 2008 and 2012, however there’s nothing odd in regards to the 2020 determine. In truth, it’s simple to elucidate. Land doesn’t vote, folks do. Within the present political period, Democratic presidential candidates have tended to be dominant in probably the most populous counties, a few of which have a whole bunch of hundreds and even thousands and thousands of individuals, whereas Republicans have tended to do finest in areas with fewer residents.

“There may be nothing suspicious about profitable the presidency with a smaller variety of counties,” William Frey, a senior fellow at The Brookings Establishment assume tank, mentioned in an e mail. “Counties differ broadly in measurement, with giant city and suburban counties – areas the place Biden did finest – housing far bigger populations than many of the outer suburb, small city and rural counties that Trump received.”

Right here’s an instance of why profitable a county will not be inherently important. Trump handily carried Loving County, Texas, in 2020 – however that county had an estimated mid-2020 inhabitants of 65 folks. Biden, conversely, handily carried Harris County, Texas, which had an estimated mid-2020 inhabitants of 4.7 million folks.

When you’re counting all county victories as equal, that’s a tie, one county for Trump and one county for Biden. However Biden netted greater than 217,000 additional votes from the 1-for-1 commerce.

The break up between vote totals, which decide who wins the election, and the counties-carried tally, which is an inconsequential matter of trivia, might maintain getting wider. Stated Frey, a widely known demographer: “The residents of Biden-won counties signify sooner rising elements of the inhabitants – folks of shade, school graduates, overseas born and single folks – than these the that dominate Trump counties. Trump counties will proceed to develop extra slowly than Biden counties.”

Here’s what occurred within the final 5 presidential elections received by Democrats; all of those candidates misplaced a majority of counties whereas comfortably profitable the Electoral Faculty and common vote. The county figures are all courtesy of Wasserman. He excluded Alaska, which makes use of a system of boroughs reasonably than counties.

Invoice Clinton, 1992: Gained 1,524 counties out of three,112, or about 49%. Gained the Electoral Faculty 370 to 168. Gained the favored vote by 5.81 million.

Invoice Clinton, 1996: Once more received 1,524 counties out of three,112, or about 49%. Gained the Electoral Faculty 379 to 159. Gained the favored vote by 8.20 million.

Barack Obama, 2008: Gained 875 counties out of three,113, or about 28%. Gained the Electoral Faculty 365 to 173. Gained the favored vote by 9.55 million.

Barack Obama, 2012: Gained 693 counties out of three,113, or about 22%. Gained the Electoral Faculty 332 to 206. Gained the favored vote by 4.98 million.

Joe Biden, 2020: Gained 538 counties out of three,113, or about 17%. Gained the Electoral Faculty 306 to 232. Gained the favored vote by 7.06 million.