China: Economy stays resilient in April – UOB Group

China’s economy stayed durable in Apr even as United States’ mutual and tit-for-tat tariffs began. Just like exports, the downturn in commercial production (IP) was included as frontloading continued in other markets after United States paused its mutual tariffs with them, UOB Group’s economic expert Ho Woei Chen notes.

IP remains robust however retail sales and residential or commercial property market deteriorates in April

” The unpredictabilities affected retail sales and city set properties financial investment (FAI) which ended up weaker-than-expected in April. Having stated that, the m/m momentum has actually remained favorable for retail sales and FAI while the surveyed unemployed rates sneaked lower. The residential or commercial property market stayed an essential issue for policy makers as indications such as home costs, residential or commercial property financial investment and home sales softened in April.”

” Factoring in the near-term increase from the 90-day US-China trade truce, we modify greater our projection for China’s GDP development for 2025 to 4.6% from 4.3%, with 2Q25 at 4.9% y/y (1Q25: 5.4%) and 4.2% y/y in 2H25. The unpredictability in China’s outlook stays high and depends upon whether there is a resilient trade contract in between United States and China along with the ultimate tariff rates. China’s stimulus will provide additional assistance to stabilise its outlook.”

” We repeat our projection for an extra 0.1%- point rate of interest cut in 4Q25. Our forecasts for the 7-day reverse repo rate, 1Y LPR and 5Y LPR are at 1.30%, 2.90% and 3.40% respectively at end-4Q25.”